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“Tesla’s Q4 Delivery Outlook Signals Continued Pressure on Growth” 🚨🚨🚨

Tesla-compiled analyst estimates suggest the EV maker may be headed for a meaningful slowdown in fourth-quarter deliveries. According to the company’s own aggregation, analysts expect Tesla to deliver approximately 422,850 vehicles in Q4, which would represent a 15% decline from the 495,570 vehicles delivered in the same period last year.

If realized, full-year deliveries are projected at roughly 1.6 million vehicles—an 8% drop from 2024 levels and what would mark Tesla’s second consecutive annual decline in deliveries. Notably, these Tesla-compiled estimates sit below consensus figures from Bloomberg and FactSet, both of which have been trending lower over the past month as expectations reset.

Market-based indicators reinforce the cautious outlook. Event contract pricing suggests most traders are positioning for Q4 deliveries to land between 410,000 and 420,000 vehicles, slightly below Tesla’s internal average estimate. These probabilities are derived from trading activity on event contracts offered via Robinhood Derivatives, with data sourced from Kalshi and ForecastEx.

The disclosure itself is also noteworthy. While Tesla has historically shared its compilation of analyst estimates with institutional investors, this marks the first time the company has published those figures directly on its website. The estimates reflect input from a broad range of major firms, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, RBC, UBS, and Wedbush, among others.

With official delivery numbers expected Friday, investor focus is likely to remain elevated. The report could serve as a key catalyst for Tesla shares, either validating the market’s more conservative expectations or offering a surprise that reshapes sentiment heading into the new year.