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“Walmart Beats Q4 Estimates but Issues Cautious 2026 Outlook” 🚨🚨🚨

Walmart delivered a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, topping Wall Street estimates on both earnings and revenue. However, conservative full-year guidance rattled investors early, sending shares on a volatile ride before recovering.

Q4 Results Top Expectations

For the quarter ended January 31, Walmart reported:

• Adjusted EPS: $0.74 vs. $0.73 expected

• Revenue: $190.7 billion vs. $190.5 billion expected

The earnings beat highlighted continued resilience in consumer spending, even as broader economic concerns linger.

Soft Full-Year Guidance Weighs on Sentiment

Despite the solid quarter, Walmart’s outlook for the current fiscal year came in below analyst expectations:

• Adjusted EPS: $2.75–$2.85 (vs. $2.97 expected)

• Sales growth: 3.5%–4.5% year over year (vs. ~5% expected)

Management cited macroeconomic uncertainty, softer consumer sentiment, and slower hiring trends as reasons for issuing cautious projections.

CFO John Rainey noted the company aims to outperform its guidance but believes it is prudent to begin the year conservatively. Analysts, including Michael Baker of DA Davidson, suggested Walmart has a history of setting beatable expectations — especially during leadership transitions.

Market Reaction and Leadership Transition

Shares initially fell about 3% in premarket trading before reversing course, rising roughly 2% by mid-morning. This marks the first earnings report under CEO John Furner, who officially stepped into the role on February 1.

Investor expectations were elevated heading into the release. Walmart stock is up more than 13% year-to-date and recently became the third non-tech company to surpass a $1 trillion valuation.

Competitive Landscape

For the full fiscal year, Walmart posted revenue of $713.2 billion — narrowly trailing Amazon, which reported $716.9 billion in annual sales. The shift underscores intensifying competition between traditional retail and e-commerce giants as both diversify revenue streams.

While short-term guidance may raise concerns, many analysts believe Walmart’s conservative outlook could set the stage for upside surprises if consumer trends stabilize.